For much of the year, the 2016 USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Presidential Election Poll—designed to track changes in voter opinions throughout the campaign, using what experts called a unique and more complex weighting model—behaved as a quirky outlier. It pointed all along to a Trump victory on the magnitude that came to pass Tuesday night.
Since then, Kapteyn and his team have been swamped with requests for more about their methods.
“I wouldn’t necessarily say that the polls were all very far off,” Kapteyn said in an interview. “It is just that most were on the wrong side of the final result.”